San Diego County Economic Profile June 2008
June 24th, 2008Lies! Damn lies and statistics as Mark Twain once exclaimed. Now with the California Association of Realtors June 2008 Economic profile you too can be an expert when you opine about our economic future.
These statistics reveal the strength and weakness in a wide range of economic data related to the real estate market, employment and population trends in the San Diego economy.
Most interesting trends are the increase in foreclosures, the decrease in median prices listed by city, the dramatic increase in sales and which segments of the market have the most activity. Please keep in mind that median price decreases are being driven by foreclosures which account for 25% of total sales mostly in the lower priced segments of the market while sales have dropped off in the upper priced segments. This shift in activity has a tendency to make median price decreases more dramatic. Investors are buying heavily into the lower priced homes. Tremendous opportunities exist in North San Diego County Coastal cities like Oceanside, Carlsbad and Encinitas.
Damn lies and statistics! As I’ve mentioned before, all of the statistics regarding unsold inventory are squewed by the number of short sales that are listed in the inventory. Most short sales are unsellable because lenders can’t or won’t meet the terms a potential buyers offer, which bloats the inventory numbers. Buyers find themselves competing with investors, multiple offers, overbids and transactions that don’t close.
More damn lies and statistics…Some areas are showing a 20% year to date decrease in median price. However, for those who are financing their purchase mortgage rates have gone up 20% in recent weeks from 5.3% to 6.3%. So keep an eye on mortgage rates. They can easily erase any savings to be had by lower prices.
association of realtors california association of realtors carlsbad coastal cities dramatic increase economic profile inventory numbers mark twain median price median prices mortgage rates north san diego county oceanside population trends price decreases purchase mortgage segments strength and weaknessSan Diego Foreclosure Update
June 21st, 2008San Diego Foreclosure Update
Foreclosures are on the rise for the first quarter of 2008 which is no surprise. But what is a surprise, home sales have continued to climb. In San Diego County, sales are up 6% from April 08 to May 08. The reason is prices are down 25% from a year ago in May 07. Prices have not been this low since September 2003. Fortunately the job growth in San Diego has remained steady and homes prices are falling to more buyer’s affordability levels.
It will be good news if this trend lasts throughout the summer and fall with lower prices and higher sales. Consumer confidence takes awhile to re-establish, but if the sales numbers continue to climb week by week and month by month, the bottom of the market may not be that far off.
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San Diego Foreclosure Lists
Please click on the link below to receive the latest recorded foreclosures (Notice of Defaults, Trustee Sales, & Bank Owned) for the two weeks ending 6/11/08. For information about Oceanside, Carlsbad, Encinitas, Vista or San Marcos the lists are searchable by zip code or city by using the find function under the edit pull down menu.
http://www.easyhouserewards.com/Foreclosure_List2.html
bank owned carlsbad foreclosure list notice of default oceanside real eatate San Marcos trustee sale VistaBanning Short Sales Movement Begins
June 9th, 2008Well, it’s just an idea at this time. However, in the public interest it is the best idea I’ve heard anyone come up with to deal with the ugly reality that short sales present to distressed owners, buyers, and Realtors. My complements to James Wexler for his article Ban All Short Sales.
Oceanside, CA has and abundance of short sales and the closing ratio is extremely low.
distressed owners oceanside ca realtorsOh, I’m getting married in the morning.
May 23rd, 2008Yes, it is true, the Surfman, Paul Cauthen is getting married at King of Kings Lutheran Church in Oceanside on Saturday May 24. 2008. My lovely bride is the awesome Marlene Hammer who hails from Huntington Beach CA. We’ll be surrounded by wonderful family and friends celebrating our special day. I’m very thankful to be so blessed.
Life is short, life is sweet, I DO promise to love it well!
Bear Stearns’ Bailout numbers are huge….really huge.
May 13th, 2008If you are like most of us the recent bail out of Bear Stearns’ was just a passing blip in the never ending river of talking head blather and hype… most of it BS… about real estate, finance and investing. However, a closer look at the magnitude of exposure Bear Stearns’ has in derivatives gives us a prospective about why the bailout was necessary. My mentor and associate Pat Kitano has a great article about this mega event and what it really means.
So with all the hype going on about real estate slumping, tanking and all that in the Oceanside Carlsbad, Vista, San Marcos and Encinitas areas some people actually believe that sellers will be paying buyers to take their property, perhaps giving them a monthly stipend, or arranging a marriage with their daughters and mowing the yard for them until 2020. REALITY CHECK…there are some great buys to be found but don’t miss the boat. According to HomeDex median prices in the North San Diego County Coastal area actually increased about 5% in April. There are homes on the market in the North San Diego County and many other economically stable areas that couldn’t be built for their current asking price. According to some, so called, authorities we are 75% through the sub-prime fiasco. So what! Prices are down, interest rates are low, inflation is rising and what better asset to own than Real Estate? Real Estate is personal shelter, tax shelter, it doesn’t evaporate like a stock can, you can live in it , rent it, insure it so if it burns to the ground it can be rebuilt and underneath is the land value. Real Estate is a tangible asset, not a piece of paper like a Bear Stearns’ derivative.
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April 30th, 2008
Over the years I’ve always had a picture of myself surfing on my business cards. Call me narcissistic, if you like, and maybe I am ( it’s my great hair). But it seems that I spend a lot of time at the beach. I even have a criteria that my office can be no more than four blocks from the shoreline. So it’s natural that I’ve helped a lot of surfers find homes in the North San Diego Coastal area. I do get teased sometimes for having a surfing picture on my business card but that’s ok, at least people remember it
It’s surprising how entrenched surfing is in the North County Coastal Area and the amazing popularity of living where the sun is almost always shining and there’s a cool breeze coming off the Pacific Ocean. The surfers that live and own homes in the area come from all walks of life and aren’t your typical stereo type party animal surfer dudes. They are Policemen, Firemen, Lawyers, Doctors, Teachers, Accountants, Business Owners and just about any other type of professional. They all have their surfboards ready and will be playing hookey from work the next time there’s a good south swell.
Despite the turmoil taking place in the San Diego County Real Estate market, beach neighborhoods have maintained higher values with every step closer to the sand. People from all over the world make this area their destination to visit and enjoy. And having a vacation home near the beach is very popular for the fortunate.
Welcome to OCEANSIDE.
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April 14th, 2008Attached is an ex-script about sales trends in San Diego courtesy of the National Association of Realtors and Yahoo. There are plenty of good buys, but how long will it last? This should give some indication. If you have any questions contact your trusted real estate professional. Chances are their guess is as good as any.
For those waiting for a bottom, consider where else in the world is a better place to live than San Diego County. Also, take into consideration that almost all foreclosures, in that hot segment of the market, sell for 98% of list price. In addition, many of the coastal area foreclosures get multiple offers. So it may be time to let that pent up need for a home along the San Diego Coast express itself. There are some fantastic buys to be found in Oceanside, Carlsbad and Encinitas but you have to be ready. Like my karate Sensi used to say “the time to strike is when the opportunity presents itself”.
Apr 10th, 2008
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April 11th, 2008One of the most frustrating things about searching for property is the feeling that you just may have missed something, like that better deal that’s in the neighborhood you just didn’t know about. Now with modern searching techniques all the listings in a geographic area are available via a customized map with the geographic parameters you desire. No more wondering if you missed that perfect home you are looking for. And you get a copy of the map.
Marketlinks
Swamis Beach is a majestic spot to visit or live near. The surfing is great.
Short Sales-Something Fishy About Those Things-What is a Short Sale Anyway?
April 5th, 2008
Sub-prime loans. From the borrowers perspective.
So here we are beaming along. Home inventory seems to be at recent historical highs, rates are low, prices are down and buyers can get killer deals. It’s like shooting fish in a barrel… Not so fast there pilgrim… Enter the Short Sale.
“So what is a short sale?” I’m frequently asked. No the bank isn’t selling shorts…but they are in a monetary way losing them. A short sale occurs when the borrower can no longer maintain the mortgage and the value of the home is less than what is owed against it. The borrower can avoid foreclosure by finding a buyer who is willing to buy the home for less than what is owed. The lender(s) then agrees to allow the borrower to sell the home for less than what is owed, take a loss and come up “short” for the difference. This is not exactly the type of thing that appears in the business model, but that’s it in a nutshell.
In many areas of my marketplace in North San Diego short sales make up 70% of the active listing inventory. Yet short sales account for only 7% of the total sales. This amazing disparity is evident when you take into consideration that only 20% of short sale listings actually sell. In addition, short sales take 2-6 months to get bank approval and are subject to foreclosure , overbid, rejection, counter offers at a higher price or just getting lost in the shuffle at any time. And the processors at the banks loss mitigation departments could care less because you are just one of hundreds they have to deal with. So what does all this mean in the big picture?
1. A lot of homes currently listed as short sales will soon be Bank Owned.
2. It appears there are a lot more houses for sale than there really are because the vast majority of short sales are unsellable.
3. If you think you are going to buy a home that is a short sale you better not be in love with it. 2-6 months of buyer related stress?
4. Something’s fishy at the bank. They seem so efficient at losing money.
So if you think some of these details are going to put a hitch in your desire to run out buy a short sale just wait until you visit some that are for sale. Families are getting kicked out. They can’t maintain their mortgage so why should they care about the home? As a general rule they don’t. Oh, and why should they care about doing the mountain of paperwork either? To quote a recent home buyer about shopping short sale listings “It’s depressing.”
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